The Trinity Study Tables

Update to Trinity Study Tables

The original Trinity Study measured returns from 1945 through 1995, a 50-year period. Here are the same tables updated to measure 90 years 1926 through 2014:

trinity-study-column with highlighting

Table 1:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1926 to 1995 That are Supported by the Portfolio

Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year periods, 51; 25-year periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor's 500 Index, and bonds are represented by long-term, high-grade corporates.

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Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.

PortfolioComposition/Payout Period	Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value
PortfolioComposition/Payout Period	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
100% Stocks
15 Years	100	100	98	98	93	91	88	77	63	55
20 Years	100	98	96	94	92	84	73	61	47	43
25 Years	100	98	96	91	87	78	70	50	43	35
30 Years	100	98	95	90	85	78	68	54	49	34
75% Stocks-25% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	96	95	91	79	63	46
20 Years	100	100	100	96	94	88	71	51	41	33
25 Years	100	100	98	96	91	78	57	46	33	26
30 Years	100	100	98	95	88	73	54	46	37	24
50% Stocks-50% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	100	98	91	71	50	36
20 Years	100	100	100	100	96	88	61	41	25	10
25 Years	100	100	100	98	96	70	43	22	7	0
30 Years	100	100	100	98	90	51	37	15	0	0
25% Stocks-75% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	100	100	91	50	21	14
20 Years	100	100	100	100	100	71	24	12	4	2
25 Years	100	100	100	100	78	22	9	0	0	0
30 Years	100	100	100	100	32	5	0	0	0	0
100% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	100	79	43	38	14	7
20 Years	100	100	100	96	47	35	16	6	0	0
25 Years	100	100	98	52	26	7	2	0	0	0
30 Years	100	100	51	27	0	0	0	0	0	0

The Trinity Study Tables

Table 2:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1946 to 1995 That are Supported by the Portfolio

Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1946 to 1995, inclusively, is 36; 20-year periods, 31; 25-year periods, 26; 30-year periods, 21. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor's 500 Index, and bonds are represented by long-term, high-grade corporates.

Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.

Portfolio Composition/ Payout Period	Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value
Portfolio Composition/ Payout Period	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
100% Stocks
15 Years	100	100	98	98	93	91	88	77	63	55
20 Years	100	98	96	94	92	84	73	61	47	43
25 Years	100	98	96	91	87	78	70	50	43	35
30 Years	100	98	95	90	85	78	68	54	49	34
75% Stocks-25% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	96	95	91	79	63	46
20 Years	100	100	100	96	94	88	71	51	41	33
25 Years	100	100	98	96	91	78	57	46	33	26
30 Years	100	100	98	95	88	73	54	46	37	24
50% Stocks-50% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	100	98	91	71	50	36
20 Years	100	100	100	100	96	88	61	41	25	10
25 Years	100	100	100	98	96	70	43	22	7	0
30 Years	100	100	100	98	90	51	37	15	0	0
25% Stocks-75% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	100	100	91	50	21	14
20 Years	100	100	100	100	100	71	24	12	4	2
25 Years	100	100	100	100	78	22	9	0	0	0
30 Years	100	100	100	100	32	5	0	0	0	0
100% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	100	79	43	38	14	7
20 Years	100	100	100	96	47	35	16	6	0	0
25 Years	100	100	98	52	26	7	2	0	0	0
30 Years	100	100	51	27	0	0	0	0	0	0

The Trinity Study Tables

Table 3:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1926 to 1995 that are Supported by the Portfolio After Adjusting Withdrawals for Inflation and Deflation

Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year periods, 51; 25-year periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor's 500 Index, bonds are represented by long-term, high-grade corporates, and inflation (deflation) rates are based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.

Portfolio Composition/ Payout Period	Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value
Portfolio Composition/ Payout Period	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
100% Stocks
15 Years	100	100	100	91	79	70	63	55	43	34
20 Years	100	100	88	75	63	53	43	33	29	24
25 Years	100	100	87	70	59	46	35	30	26	20
30 Years	100	95	85	68	59	41	34	34	27	15
75% Stocks-25% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	95	82	68	64	46	36	27
20 Years	100	100	90	75	61	51	37	27	20	12
25 Years	100	100	85	65	50	37	30	22	7	2
30 Years	100	98	83	68	49	34	22	7	2	0
50% Stocks-50% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	93	79	64	50	32	23	13
20 Years	100	100	90	75	55	33	22	10	0	0
25 Years	100	100	80	57	37	20	7	0	0	0
30 Years	100	95	76	51	17	5	0	0	0	0
25% Stocks-75% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	89	70	50	32	18	13	7
20 Years	100	100	82	47	31	16	8	4	0	0
25 Years	100	93	48	24	15	4	2	0	0	0
30 Years	100	71	27	20	5	0	0	0	0	0
100% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	71	39	21	18	16	14	9
20 Years	100	90	47	20	14	12	10	2	0	0
25 Years	100	46	17	15	11	2	0	0	0	0
30 Years	80	20	17	12	0	0	0	0	0	0

The Trinity Study Tables

Table 4:
Terminal
Value of a $1,000 Portfolio after Annual Withdrawals: All Payout Periods from 1926 to 1995

Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest dollar amount. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year periods, 51; 25-year periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Based on all past payout periods, the statistical values for each case represent the mean, the arithmetic average terminal value; minimum, the smallest terminal value; 25%, the lower quartile; median, the 50th percentile; 75%, the upper quartile; and maximum, the largest terminal value.

Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.

Portfolio Composition and Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value
	75% Stocks - 25 % Bonds				50% Stocks - 50 % Bonds				25% Stocks - 75% Bonds
Payout Period	4	5	6	7	4	5	6	7	4	5	6	7
15 Years
Mean	2964	2631	2297	1970	2285	1992	1698	1405	1755	1496	1236	977
Minimum	493	249	5	0	855	615	375	135	969	756	542	327
25%	1567	1336	1050	798	1402	1186	969	727	1192	962	735	520
Median	2727	2328	1909	1543	2086	1770	1472	1175	1422	1198	951	727
75%	4487	4068	3608	3213	2670	2345	2045	1774	1804	1568	1332	1048
Maximum	6417	5919	5421	4923	5554	5103	4652	4202	5321	4898	4474	4051
20 Years
Mean	4239	3628	3026	2435	2954	2449	1944	1443	2026	1606	1185	765
Minimum	536	108	0	0	975	587	199	0	1019	744	451	110
25%	2384	1849	1346	915	1919	1486	1056	688	1407	1031	670	307
Median	4481	3752	2914	2076	2755	2291	1798	1309	1505	1164	824	502
75%	5618	5034	4397	3554	3547	3041	2561	2024	2002	1573	1166	758
Maximum	9484	8672	7859	7047	7512	6769	6025	5282	5965	5168	4422	3746
25 Years
Mean	6031	4995	3991	3016	3815	3007	2199	1416	2307	1672	1036	424
Minimum	785	0	0	0	1340	655	0	0	1203	736	269	0
25%	4138	2995	2019	1223	3035	2294	1447	634	1626	1129	643	11
Median	5574	4483	3710	2636	3568	2706	2058	1381	1850	1325	787	200
75%	8016	6943	5972	4295	4582	3857	2930	2013	2564	1714	971	415
Maximum	11534	10418	9301	8185	8109	6624	5138	3652	6795	5492	4188	2997
30 Years
Mean	9031	7367	5779	4262	5171	3936	2712	1553	2645	1724	803	122
Minimum	1497	0	0	0	2151	870	0	0	1428	729	29	0
25%	6998	5461	3490	1962	4174	3200	2036	730	1917	1182	527	0
Median	8515	6868	5586	3745	5171	4041	2610	1251	2245	1481	806	0
75%	10134	9037	7804	6486	6046	4541	3377	2487	3399	2162	964	58
Maximum	16893	14980	13067	11245	8423	7212	6001	4790	5407	3451	2080	1330