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The Trinity Study Tables

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Update to Trinity Study Tables

The original Trinity Study measured returns from 1945 through 1995, a 50-year period.  Here are the same tables updated to measure 90 years 1926 through 2014:

trinity-study-column with highlighting

The Trinity Study Tables

Table 1:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1926 to 1995 That are Supported by the Portfolio


Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year periods, 51; 25-year periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor’s 500 Index, and bonds are represented by long-term, high-grade corporates.

Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.

 

 


PortfolioComposition/Payout Period

Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100% Stocks
15 Years 100 100 98 98 93 91 88 77 63 55
20 Years 100 98 96 94 92 84 73 61 47 43
25 Years 100 98 96 91 87 78 70 50 43 35
30 Years 100 98 95 90 85 78 68 54 49 34
75% Stocks-25% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 100 96 95 91 79 63 46
20 Years 100 100 100 96 94 88 71 51 41 33
25 Years 100 100 98 96 91 78 57 46 33 26
30 Years 100 100 98 95 88 73 54 46 37 24
50% Stocks-50% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 100 100 98 91 71 50 36
20 Years 100 100 100 100 96 88 61 41 25 10
25 Years 100 100 100 98 96 70 43 22 7 0
30 Years 100 100 100 98 90 51 37 15 0 0
25% Stocks-75% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 100 100 100 91 50 21 14
20 Years 100 100 100 100 100 71 24 12 4 2
25 Years 100 100 100 100 78 22 9 0 0 0
30 Years 100 100 100 100 32 5 0 0 0 0
100% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 100 100 79 43 38 14 7
20 Years 100 100 100 96 47 35 16 6 0 0
25 Years 100 100 98 52 26 7 2 0 0 0
30 Years 100 100 51 27 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

The Trinity Study Tables

Table 2:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1946 to 1995 That are Supported by the Portfolio


Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1946 to 1995, inclusively, is 36; 20-year periods, 31; 25-year periods, 26; 30-year periods, 21. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor’s 500 Index, and bonds are represented by long-term, high-grade corporates.

Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.

 


Portfolio
Composition/
Payout Period

Withdrawal
Rate as a %
of Initial Portfolio Value
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100% Stocks
15 Years 100 100 98 98 93 91 88 77 63 55
20 Years 100 98 96 94 92 84 73 61 47 43
25 Years 100 98 96 91 87 78 70 50 43 35
30 Years 100 98 95 90 85 78 68 54 49 34
75% Stocks-25% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 100 96 95 91 79 63 46
20 Years 100 100 100 96 94 88 71 51 41 33
25 Years 100 100 98 96 91 78 57 46 33 26
30 Years 100 100 98 95 88 73 54 46 37 24
50% Stocks-50% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 100 100 98 91 71 50 36
20 Years 100 100 100 100 96 88 61 41 25 10
25 Years 100 100 100 98 96 70 43 22 7 0
30 Years 100 100 100 98 90 51 37 15 0 0
25% Stocks-75% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 100 100 100 91 50 21 14
20 Years 100 100 100 100 100 71 24 12 4 2
25 Years 100 100 100 100 78 22 9 0 0 0
30 Years 100 100 100 100 32 5 0 0 0 0
100% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 100 100 79 43 38 14 7
20 Years 100 100 100 96 47 35 16 6 0 0
25 Years 100 100 98 52 26 7 2 0 0 0
30 Years 100 100 51 27 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Trinity Study Tables

Table 3:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1926 to 1995 that are Supported by the Portfolio After Adjusting Withdrawals for Inflation and Deflation

Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year periods, 51; 25-year periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor’s 500 Index, bonds are represented by long-term, high-grade corporates, and inflation (deflation) rates are based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.

 

Portfolio Composition/
Payout Period

 

Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100% Stocks
15 Years 100 100 100 91 79 70 63 55 43 34
20 Years 100 100 88 75 63 53 43 33 29 24
25 Years 100 100 87 70 59 46 35 30 26 20
30 Years 100 95 85 68 59 41 34 34 27 15
75% Stocks-25% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 95 82 68 64 46 36 27
20 Years 100 100 90 75 61 51 37 27 20 12
25 Years 100 100 85 65 50 37 30 22 7 2
30 Years 100 98 83 68 49 34 22 7 2 0
50% Stocks-50% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 93 79 64 50 32 23 13
20 Years 100 100 90 75 55 33 22 10 0 0
25 Years 100 100 80 57 37 20 7 0 0 0
30 Years 100 95 76 51 17 5 0 0 0 0
25% Stocks-75% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 89 70 50 32 18 13 7
20 Years 100 100 82 47 31 16 8 4 0 0
25 Years 100 93 48 24 15 4 2 0 0 0
30 Years 100 71 27 20 5 0 0 0 0 0
100% Bonds
15 Years 100 100 100 71 39 21 18 16 14 9
20 Years 100 90 47 20 14 12 10 2 0 0
25 Years 100 46 17 15 11 2 0 0 0 0
30 Years 80 20 17 12 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Trinity Study Tables

Table 4:
Terminal
Value of a $1,000 Portfolio after Annual Withdrawals: All Payout Periods from 1926 to 1995

Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest dollar amount. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year periods, 51; 25-year periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Based on all past payout periods, the statistical values for each case represent the mean, the arithmetic average terminal value; minimum, the smallest terminal value; 25%, the lower quartile; median, the 50th percentile; 75%, the upper quartile; and maximum, the largest terminal value.

Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.


Portfolio Composition and Withdrawal Rate

as a % of Initial Portfolio Value


75% Stocks –

25 % Bonds


50% Stocks –

50 % Bonds


25% Stocks –

75% Bonds
Payout
Period		 4 5 6 7 4 5 6 7 4 5 6 7
15 Years
Mean 2964 2631 2297 1970 2285 1992 1698 1405 1755 1496 1236 977
Minimum 493 249 5 0 855 615 375 135 969 756 542 327
25% 1567 1336 1050 798 1402 1186 969 727 1192 962 735 520
Median 2727 2328 1909 1543 2086 1770 1472 1175 1422 1198 951 727
75% 4487 4068 3608 3213 2670 2345 2045 1774 1804 1568 1332 1048
Maximum 6417 5919 5421 4923 5554 5103 4652 4202 5321 4898 4474 4051
20 Years
Mean 4239 3628 3026 2435 2954 2449 1944 1443 2026 1606 1185 765
Minimum 536 108 0 0 975 587 199 0 1019 744 451 110
25% 2384 1849 1346 915 1919 1486 1056 688 1407 1031 670 307
Median 4481 3752 2914 2076 2755 2291 1798 1309 1505 1164 824 502
75% 5618 5034 4397 3554 3547 3041 2561 2024 2002 1573 1166 758
Maximum 9484 8672 7859 7047 7512 6769 6025 5282 5965 5168 4422 3746
25 Years
Mean 6031 4995 3991 3016 3815 3007 2199 1416 2307 1672 1036 424
Minimum 785 0 0 0 1340 655 0 0 1203 736 269 0
25% 4138 2995 2019 1223 3035 2294 1447 634
1626
1129
643
11
Median 5574 4483 3710 2636 3568 2706 2058 1381
1850
1325
787
200
75% 8016 6943 5972 4295 4582 3857 2930 2013
2564
1714
971
415
Maximum 11534 10418 9301 8185 8109 6624 5138 3652
6795
5492
4188
2997
30 Years
Mean 9031 7367 5779 4262 5171 3936 2712 1553
2645
1724
803
122
Minimum 1497 0 0 0 2151 870 0 0
1428
729
29
0
25% 6998 5461 3490 1962 4174 3200 2036 730
1917
1182
527
0
Median 8515 6868 5586 3745 5171 4041 2610 1251 2245 1481 806 0
75% 10134 9037 7804 6486 6046 4541 3377 2487 3399 2162 964 58
Maximum 16893 14980 13067 11245 8423 7212 6001 4790 5407 3451 2080 1330

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